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If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between senile president Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump?
Among regular readers of this column, the result would likely be unanimous (though it’s possible there’s a small percentage of liberals and #NeverTrumpers lurking around somewhere). If it were up to us, Donald Trump would be the next president of the United States, as well as the previous one.
How to tell? I’m starting to see more “Don’t blame me, I voted for Trump” public sympathy as well as the occasional “Impeach Joe Biden” bumper sticker on anonymous cars in local parking lots. The “silent majority” is still out there, and with time and events these good people are becoming less inhibited and more vocal, even if they’re letting the back of their gasoline powered autos do the talking for them.
But just because Biden is now (deservedly) the butt of many a joke, it doesn’t mean Trump is suddenly being remembered fondly by the majority of the fickle American electorate. Most conservatives may love him, but what about the liberals and low information voters who will cast ballots in the next go ‘round? Ignorance knows no statute of limitations, apparently. Tal Axelrod reported at The Hill:
“President Biden and former President Trump are tied in a hypothetical match-up in 2024, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll released Friday.
“The poll found that both Biden and Trump each would get 45 percent support from voters in a theoretical head-to-head in two years. Both politicians appear to be dogged by high disapproval ratings. Fifty-seven percent of voters said in the poll they have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 55 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Trump.
“Almost 15 percent of voters have unfavorable views of both leaders. That group breaks for Biden by a 36 percent-24 percent margin. However, in a sign that difference is largely anti-Trump more than pro-Biden, those voters also say by a 42 percent-29 percent margin that they intend to vote for Republican congressional candidates later this year.”
Granted this is just one survey, but the numbers are disconcerting for conservatives. In historically troubled times with a fabulously unpopular president who can’t seem to get anything right -- including his own spoken sentence structure -- one would think any candidate with an R next to his or her name would enjoy a substantial polling lead over the rolling disaster. I can’t say for sure, but even Mitt Romney would probably hold a point or two advantage over hapless ethically and politically challenged swampy Joe.
It isn’t yet panic time, but perhaps an occasion to take a step back and consider the totality of things. Polls taken this far out are meaningless, for a multitude of reasons, the first being we have no clue who will end up the nominee for either party.
Wait a second, you say! Trump just said at CPAC a couple weeks ago that he was looking to do it a third time and every hint he’s ever tossed out leads straight to the conclusion that his 2024 candidacy is a foregone conclusion. Plus, he’s jetting all over the country holding rallies and giving interviews, commenting on current events as though he’s still sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.
Then there’s senile Joe’s own statements indicating he’s all-in for a re-election rematch against Trump. Biden is such an accomplished liar that it doesn’t mean anything when he looks his interviewers in the eye and says he “intends” to do something, or it’s his “plan” to run. Like the polls, these statements don’t mean a thing and bind him to nothing. Biden wouldn’t recognize a promise if it punched him in the mouth; the man’s so senile and mentally challenged that he doesn’t know what he’s saying the majority of the time; and half his party -- or more -- says they don’t want him as their candidate.
A similar though slightly smaller number of Republicans indicate in surveys that they don’t want Trump to run again either. He will be 76 in June -- and 78 in June of 2024 -- and though he appears to be in excellent health and still has his remarkable-for-his-age energy in abundance, there are health factors to weigh for him. Trump clearly cares more about his legacy than he does his life and he’d willingly sacrifice his wellbeing to lead the nation for what he sees as his already-won four more years.
But there’re also whispers of unease in the GOP grassroots that could very well become shouts in a couple years’ time -- namely, the desire and need for a fresher, younger face to take the Make America Great Again mantle and lead it forward. It goes without saying that conservatives are terrified of losing the presidency again in 2024. Right now, Trump looks to be the only one who could possibly lose it, and that’s because he has absolutely zero chance to win back about half of the electorate. No matter what.
That half of voters value “decorum” and civility and “unity” above policy prescriptions. Frankly, these people are stupid. I’d like them to flash their preferences on a bumper sticker themselves so me and those of like mind could shoot them dirty looks while paying a hundred bucks for a tank of gas. “I can’t burn your civility in my gas tank, pal.”
It's true that Trump doesn’t Tweet anymore (he can’t, which, on the whole, has turned out to be a positive thing). His Truth Social venture is just getting off the ground and has had a slower than anticipated start. Here’s thinking the platform will eventually take flight and function as a conservative alternative to the leftist tech oligarchs’ creations -- but will it have the same reach? Is there a great hankering among Americans to listen to more Trump social media preaching?
Trump remains a master manipulator of the establishment media. I didn’t see all of his CPAC speech but most everyone that commented on it said the hour-plus talk was vintage Trump and one of the best deliveries he’s ever done. He commands a room and a TV audience like none other. Trump’s message is a winner in just about any forum. But is Trump the man himself a certain winner?
The doubts linger. Most of the observers I speak with think yes, “but….” Would they wager their house on it? Or even more succinct, would they wager America’s future on it? Conservatives know the nation can’t take another four years of senile Joe or (insert any Democrat’s name here). If Biden’s disastrously inept, incompetent and evil first year didn’t convince his skeptics, certainly his bungling of the Russia/Ukraine episode and world energy crisis did the trick.
I believe that inflation and the American economic situation will get so bad that Democrats themselves are going to start questioning Biden’s ability to keep his job for a full four-year term. Don’t be shocked if rumors begin circulating with the “I” (impeachment) word prominently mentioned. Liberals wouldn’t be wild about Kamala Harris taking over -- yes, she’s that bad -- but elbowing her out of the way for the party nomination in favor of Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton wouldn’t be all that difficult or out of the question.
Jettisoning senile Joe, on the other hand, would be near impossible (assuming he actually does run again) in the party primaries. The old guard Democrat establishment would never back the effort. Do you think Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would come out publicly and say their bosom chum Joe Biden was unfit for office? They’d just as soon chew off an arm with their own teeth as concede that one of their inner-circle was a failure.
Needless to say, there would be no great movement behind replacing bumbling senile Joe with the cackling embarrassment Kamala Harris. The veep’s trip to eastern Europe to reassure NATO allies that the U.S. was with them was nothing short of cringeworthy. To provide context, it was a little over two years ago that Biden promised (in a one-on-one debate with Bernie Sanders) that he would select a woman as his running mate.
The liberal warm and fuzzies were tangible. The glass ceiling shattered by senile Joe!
What would’ve been more helpful in this particular Biden vs. Trump 2024 poll is including potential vice president picks. With both men hovering around the 80-year-old mark (senile Joe will turn 82 a few weeks after election day, 2024), there will be increased focus on who could possibly succeed the president should fate intervene in his next term. If it were a contest between Harris and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for example… well, not even Democrats are THAT dumb to choose the affirmative action candidate.
With the better part of three more years of senile Joe to go, his support figures to only weaken. The question is whether Donald Trump can somehow convince the Americans who despise his personality more than a ruined America (under Biden and Democrats) to choose him the next time around. The campaign won’t be an easy one. The future, like the present, is very much up in the air.
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